Rozenstruik vs Sakai Odds and Pick

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Blake Daniels, June 4, 2021

Top 10 heavyweight Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai collide in the main event of UFC Vegs 28 on Saturday night at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Rozenstruik is 1-2 in his last three bouts and is coming off a loss to Cyril Gane in his most recent outing. Meanwhile, Sakai heads to this bout after getting knocked out by Alistair Overeem. He won his first four UFC bouts before suffering the Overeem setback.

Let’s take a look at some of the prominent bouts on the UFC Vegas 28 main card and make our predictions.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai

Rozenstruik is the 6th ranked heavyweight contender in the UFC. The 33-year old from Suriname is a former kickboxing champion at the WLF and SuperKombat organizations Known as Bigi Boi, he picked up back-to-back wins over Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem in 2019 but was stopped by Francis Ngannou in his next bout. Rozenstruik is 11-2 with 10 knockouts and is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-4 tall with a reach of 78 inches.

Augusto Sakai is the no. 9 ranked heavyweight in the UFC. This 30-year old Brazilian fought for Bellator before joining the UFC via the Contender Series. Sakai opened his UFC career with four consecutive wins before getting knocked out by Alistair Overeem in his most recent bout. He is 6-3 tall with a reach of 77 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Sakai has a record of 15-2 with 11 knockouts.

Moneyline Odds: Rozenstruik -116, Sakai -104
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Rozenstruik only knows one way to win and that is to smash his opponents. He has excellent punching power and terrific finishing skills. However, Sakai is a very durable opponent and although he isn’t known as a knockout artist in the UFC, he throws with bad intentions and can put the hurt on his opponents too. I don’t think either fighter can knock the other out and this will go the full route with the more skilled striker winning the fight.

Prediction: Augusto Sakai

Walt Harris vs Marcin Tybura

Walt Harris is the 8th best heavyweight in the UFC rankings. The 37-year old competed for Titan FC before joining the UFC. A former Golden Gloves champion, Harris went 5-2-1 beginning 2017 before losing his last two bouts to Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov. He has a record of 13-9 with all of his wins coming via knockout. Harris is a southpaw who stands 6-5 tall with a reach of 77 inches.

Marcin Tybura is the no. 11 ranked heavyweight in the UFC. The 35-year old from Poland is a former M-1 Global Heavyweight champion who joined the UFC in 2016. Tybura is on a four-fight winning streak and is coming off a Performance of the Night knockout of Greg Hardy. Tybur is 6-3 tall with a 78-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 21-6 with 8 knockouts and six submission wins.

Moneyline OddS: Harris +150, Tybura -175
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Harris failed to prove his worth when he was given top-level opposition. Two losses later, he is looking to end his slump. The key to victory here will be Harris setting the tone of the fight and landing his big shots early. If he can do that, and hurt Tybura early, he’s got a chance to control this fight. However, if Harris doesn’t dictate the pace of the fight, he’s not going to beat a fighter who is more skilled and technical than him. Either Harris clips Tybura and gets the early stoppage or Tybur rolling to another victory behind his well-rounded game.

Prediction: Marcin Tybura

Roman Dolidze vs Laureano Staropoli

Roman Dolidze is a former World Warriors Fight Championship champion. The 32-year old from Georgia, in the former Soviet Union, won his first two UFC assignments but dropped his most recent one against Trevin Giles. Dolidze has a record of 8-1 with four knockouts and three submission victories. He is 6-2 tall with a reach of 76 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Laureano Staropoli fought mostly in Argentina before joining the UFC in 2018. The 28-year old Argentinian won his first two UFC bouts against Hector Aldana and Thiago Alvez before losing his last two to Muslim Salikhov and Tim Means. Staropoli has a record of 9-3 with five knockouts and two submission wins. He is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-1 tall with a 71-inch reach.

Moneyline Odds: Dolidze -135, Staropoli +115
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Staropoli has relied on his Muay Thai and conditioning to get him through fights in the UFC. He is successful when he is active and constantly using his range to land his strikes. But that could be difficult to do against a bigger man in Dolidze, who is a natural athlete, has good skills on the mat, and owns a kicking game that scores points. I’m going with the bigger and more equipped fighter to win this fight and that is Dolidze.

Prediction: Roman Dolidze

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza

Santiago Ponzinibbio fought in Argentina and Brazil before joining the UFC in 2013. The 34-year old from Brazil started his UFC career with a 2-2 record but won his next seven bouts before losing to Li Jingliang via first-round knockout in his most recent bout. Ponzinibbio is 27-4 with 15 knockouts and six submission wins. He is an orthodox fighter who stands six feet tall and with a reach of 73 inches.

Miguel Baeza is a veteran of Fight Time and FXN before joining the Contender Series where he earned his UFC contract. The 28-year old is 3-0 with three stoppages inside the UFC Octagon. Overall, he is undefeated in 10 bouts with seven knockouts and one submission defeat. Baeza is 6-2 tall with a 74-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Moneyline Odds: Ponzinibbio -102, Baeza -118
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Ponzinibbio loves an old-fashioned brawl. He hits very hard, has a punishing calf kick, and throws a lethal one-two punch combination down the middle. He also has good defensive wrestling and a cardio that can go five rounds. But Baeza is one of the welterweight division’s up-and-coming fighters. He is a terrific counter-puncher who can pick his opponent apart on the feet. I won’t blame you if you side with the veteran Ponzinibbio who is the more experienced fighter. But he’s coming off a loss and facing a young prospect who is hungrier than him.

Prediction: Miguel Baeza

Tom Breese vs Antonio Arroyo

Tom Breese fought for BAMMA and won the welterweight title before joining the UFC. The 29-year old Englishman has lost three out of his last five bouts and is coming off a loss to Omari Akhmedov in his last outing. Breese is 12-3 with five knockouts and six submission wins. He is a southpaw who stands 6-3 tall with a 73-inch reach.

Antonio Arroyo appeared twice in the Contender Series and won twice in the competition, earning him a UFC contract. However, he’s dropped his first two UFC bouts, losing to Andre Muniz and Deron Winn. The 31-year old is 9-4 with four knockouts and four submission wins. Arroyo is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-3 tall and a reach of 73 inches.

Moneyline Odds: Breese -255, Arroyo +215
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Arroyo has decent kickboxing skills and is a good grappler. However, he has yet to win inside the UFC Octagon and has surrendered 15 takedowns. Breese isn’t the most dynamic striker or grappler but he is better on the feet so unless Arroyo shows something new on the mat, there’s a good chance that Brees outclasses him on the feet. I don’t think Arroyo has what it takes to keep up with Breese.

Prediction: Tom Breese

Tanner Boser vs Ilir Latifi

Tanner Boser is a former two-time Unified MMA heavyweight champion. The 29-year old Canadian also competed for M-1 Global and King of the Cage. He is 4-2 in his last six bouts but is coming off a loss to Andrei Arlovski. Boser has a record of 19-7 with 10 knockouts and two submission wins. Boser is 6-2 with a 75-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Ilir Latifi fought for Shark Fights and Glory before joining the UFC. The 37-year old known as the Swedish Hammer heads to this bout with three straight losses including a heavyweight bout against Derrick Lewis in his last outing. He has a record of 14-8 with six knockouts and four submission wins. He stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 73 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Moneyline Odds: Boser -175, Latifi +150
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Latifi’s heavyweight debut against Derrick Lewis showed that size does matter in the heavyweight division. Latifi was already undersized at 205-pounds and relied mostly on his ridiculous power and physical strength to pick up victories. Moving up to heavyweight negates all those advantages. Boser isn’t a world beater but he is technically better than Latifi while also enjoying a natural size advantage. Unless Latifi can pin him against the fence for 15 minutes, the more mobile Boser wins a striking battle from a distance.

Prediction: Tanner Boser

Francisco Trinaldo vs Muslim Salikhov

Trinaldo is the former Jungle Fight lightweight champion who appeared in The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil series. The 42-year old Brazilian heads to this bout with three straight victories including a TKO of Jai Herbert in his last bout. Trinaldo has a record of 26-7 with 9 knockouts and five submission wins. He is a 5-9 southpaw with a 70-inch reach.

Muslim Salikhov is a multiple-time world wushu champion. The 36-year old from Dagestan has won four straight bouts after losing his UFC debut. Salikhov is coming off a split decision victory over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and has a record of 17-2 with 12 knockouts and two submission wins. He is 5-11 tall with a 70-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Moneyline Odds: Trinaldo +210, Salikhov -250
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Trinaldo’s pressure-fighting style could pose a problem for Salikhov. However, his lack of punching power and his advanced age could work against him here. Salikhov is too fast on the feet and with his hands that Trinaldo will get caught while trying to throw his left-handed bombs. No doubt Trinaldo has defied his age and continues to perform in the UFC. However, Salikhov will likely catch him with something big that ends the Brazilian’s night early.

Prediction: Muslim Salikhov

Montana De La Rosa vs Ariane Lipski

Montana De La Rosa fought for XFN and LFA before joining the UFC in 2017. The 26-year old won her first three UFC assignments but only has one win in her last four with two losses. She drew with Mayra Bueno Silva in her most recent bout and is 11-6 with 8 submission wins. De La Rosa is 5-7 tall with a 68-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Arian Lipski is the former KSW women’s flyweight champion. The 27-year old Brazilian is just 2-3 in the UFC and heads to this bout after losing to Antonia Shevchenko in her most recent bout. She is 13-6 with six knockouts and three submission wins. Lipski is 5-6 tall with a 67-inch reach and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Moneyline Odds: De La Rosa -265, Lipski +225
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

With Lipski’s terrific striking, the best path to victory for De La Rosa would be to take this fight to the ground. Although De La Rosa isn’t the best wrestler out there, one doesn’t have to have an NCAA Division I All-American resume to put Lipski on her back. Lipski has a non-existent takedown defense and if De La Rosa takes advantage of that, this should be a comfortable decision win for her.

Prediction: Montana De La Rosa

Sean Woodson vs Youssef Zalal

Sean Woodson fought at Shamrock FC before joining the Contender Series in 2019 where he earned a UFC contract. After winning his UFC debut against Kyle Bochniak, he lost to Julian Erosa in his second bout. Woodson is 7-1 with two knockouts and one submission win. He stands 6-2 tall with a 78-inch reach and is an orthodox fighter.

Zalal fought for LFA before joining the UFC in 2020. After winning his first two UFC bouts against Jordan Griffin and Peter Barrett, he has dropped two in a row and is coming off a loss to Seung Woo Choi in his last bout. Zalal has a record of 10-4 with two knockouts and five submission wins. He is a switch hitter who is 5-10 tall with a 72-inch reach.

Moneyline Odds: Woodson -176, Zalal +151
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/04/2021

Zalal has a tendency of letting his opponents dictate the tempo of his fights instead of putting the pressure on them. If he can get his wrestling going, he’s a tough nut to crack but if this fight stays on the feet, Zalal’s underwhelming striking is going to be a problem against Woodson who is a volume striker. Woodson isn’t an easy fighter to take down and if he can keep this on the feet, his combinations and striking volume will lead him to victory.

Prediction: Sean Woodson