Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners 07/09/2021 MLB Odds, Preview, and Pick

The Los Angeles Angels will visit the Seattle Mariners for a three-game set beginning Friday.

Los Angeles head to this game after having an off day following their 5-4 victory over the Boston Red Sox last Wednesday. Meanwhile, Seattle defeated the New York Yankees 4-0 in a day game on Thursday.

These two teams have played seven times this season and the Mariners have won four of those meetings.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels head to this series with a record of 44-42. They are currently in fourth place in the AL West division and are nine games off the leaders Houston. Los Angeles has won seven out of its last nine games and they have put themselves in a position where they will have a chance of earning the second wild card spot during the second half of the season.

Los Angeles averages 4.9 runs scored per game and has a total of 120 home runs with a batting average of .258. They are led by two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani who leads the majors with 32 home runs while ranking 3rd in RBI at 69. Ohtani is also 4-1 as a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.49 in 13 starts.

Alex Cobb will be on top of the hill to open the series for the Angels. Cobb got the win in his last outing after allowing only one run on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts in 7.2 innings of work against the Orioles last Wednesday. Cobb is 6-3 with an ERA of 4.60 in his first season with the Angels.

Third baseman Anthony Rendon is on the IL for the third time with a strained hamstring. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is hoping to return after the All-Star break and outfielder Justin Upton is out with a lower back issue.

Moneyline Odds: Angels -125, Mariners +115
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/09/2021

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are 46-42 on the season and are in third place in the AL West, 8 games behind the division-leading Astros and one game ahead of their opponents in the Angels. In the wild card race, Seattle is just 3.5 games behind the Oakland A’s for the second wild card spot in the American League.

Seattle is ranked 30th in batting average at .216 but they have excelled in other departments. The Mariners are in the Top 12 in home runs with 109 and are 13th in stolen bases at 40. They have also hit the ball when it matters, ranking 8th in the majors at .257 with runners on base and third overall at .270 with runners in scoring position.

Marco Gonzales will get the chance on Friday. Gonzales is coming off a loss in his last outing, as he allowed six earned runs on seven hits with two walks and four strikeouts in just 3.1 innings. In 10 appearances this season, Gonzales has posted a record of 1-5 with an ERA of 5.82.

The Mariners are without reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis who is still nursing a torn meniscus. Meanwhile, first baseman Evan White is out with a right hip flexor injury while starting pitcher Justus Sheffield also hit the IL this week with a forearm strain.

Who Wins?

Los Angeles is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. The Angels are 6-1 in their last seven games played on grass, 13-3 in their last 16 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.3, 16-5 in their last 21 games as betting favorites, 5-2 in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning record, and 4-1 in their last five Friday games.

Seattle is 13-7 in their last 20 games played. The Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 games when the total is set between 7.0 to 8.5, 5-2 in their last seven Game 1s of a series, 9-4 in their last 13 games against an opponent with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 Friday games, and 14-6 in their last 20 home games against an opponent with a winning record.

Please Note

After an impressive three-year run in Seattle, Gonzales hasn’t pitched well this season with a FIP of 5.98 while suffering a strained forearm a couple of weeks back. Obviously, this is not the right game to figure things out for Gonzales as the Angles are just outside the Top 5 with a wRC+ of 108.

Cobb has shown some good stuff with a 20.7 K-BB% behind a new splitter that has been working well for him this year. I think he will have enough in his arsenal to pick up the win behind an offense that Gonzales won’t be able to contain.

Both these teams have played well in the previous weeks. But not only do the Angels have the more explosive offense, I think Cobb will do a better job than Gonzales as well. Give me the Angels.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Over/Under Betting

The total has gone over in 11 out of the last 13 games played by the Angels. The over is 5-0 in their last five games against the American League West, 6-0 in their last six road games against a left-handed starter, 5-1 in their last six games when the total is set between 7.0 to 8.5, and 12-4 in their last 16 games as betting favorites.

The total has gone over in eight out of the last 11 games played by the Mariners. The over is 4-0 in the Mariners’ last four Game 1s of a series, 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning record, 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs, and 9-4 in their last 13 Friday games.

Head to head, the total has gone over in two out of the last three meetings between these two teams.

Over/Under Odds: Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105)
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/09/2021

I expect the Angels to hammer Gonzales and whoever the Diamondbacks put on the mount on Thursday. With Ohtani and Walsh combining for nearly 60 home runs before the All-Star break, Los Angeles is a team that’s red hot from the plate right now.

While I expect Cobb to fare better than Gonzales, the Angels’ bullpen isn’t unhittable and Los Angeles isn’t a very good defensive team. With the likes of Jake Fraley and Luis Torrens on a roll right now, the Mariners should be able to score enough runs to help the Dodgers push the total to over.

Prediction: Over 8.5 runs

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